The Dallas Mavericks have missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for the first time since Luka Doncic's rookie year in 2019, and according to ESPN, the single biggest factor in whether that drought ends next season is whether Kyrie Irving can return to form after a devastating knee injury.
In a recent article titled "Dallas Mavericks offseason recap, early 2026-27 season preview," ESPN framed the team's central storyline as a question: can Irving return to form? Kyrie Irving has not played in an NBA game since March 3, 2025, when he tore his ACL, and his return to the court is expected to shape the Mavericks' fortunes more than any roster move the franchise made this offseason.
Dallas enters the 2026-27 season with a young core that includes Cooper Flagg, Morez Johnson Jr., Max Christie, Zaccharie Risacher and Dereck Lively II. The team also added Santi Aldama via trade and drafted Johnson Jr. and De Larrea over the summer, moves that came on the heels of a 26-win season. But ESPN's outlook for Dallas remains modest. An NBA betting expert cited in the outlet's preview projected the Mavericks to win fewer than 34.5 games next season, suggesting that despite the offseason overhaul, oddsmakers are not yet convinced the team has turned a corner.
That skepticism is largely tied to uncertainty around Irving, who will be attempting to return after more than 18 months away from competitive basketball. If he looks like the player he was before tearing his ACL, the Mavericks believe they could quickly silence doubters and push toward becoming a top-six team in the Western Conference. If he cannot recapture that level, or suffers a setback, Dallas risks missing the playoffs for a third consecutive year, a particularly costly outcome given that the Mavericks do not own their own first-round draft pick next year.
A Star-Level Stretch Before The Injury
Before his injury, Irving was playing some of the best basketball of his career. From the time Doncic was traded to the Los Angeles Lakers in early February 2025 until Irving went down, he averaged 26.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.6 steals and 0.9 blocks per game, while shooting 45.2 percent from the field and 95.2 percent from the free-throw line. Those numbers reflect an All-NBA-caliber stretch, and they help explain why his health is being treated as the defining variable for Dallas heading into the new season.
Irving's game is built around shot creation, playmaking and shooting, all three of which the Mavericks lacked last season. His ability to operate on and off the ball, generate offense for himself and others, and knock down open looks would address glaring weaknesses in Dallas' attack. If he returns to that level, the Mavericks would have a legitimate offensive engine to pair with their developing young talent.
Where The Mavericks Could Land
ESPN's analysis suggests that a healthy, effective Irving would not necessarily make Dallas a juggernaut on the level of the Oklahoma City Thunder or San Antonio Spurs, two teams viewed as the class of the Western Conference. But it could put the Mavericks in the same tier as the Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers, both of whom finished as top-six teams in the West last season. Notably, the case is made that Dallas may have had a stronger offseason than either of those two teams, adding pieces like Risacher and Aldama while retaining a young core anchored by Flagg and Lively.
That comparison underscores just how much weight is being placed on Irving's health rather than on the roster additions themselves. The Mavericks' offseason moves were substantial, but none of them, according to this framing, matter as much as whether the team's veteran guard can return to being a top-tier player after such a long layoff following a serious knee injury.
The stakes are heightened by the fact that this will be the first full season under new head coach Dusty May. A disappointing result, following an offseason billed as an overhaul, would raise questions about the direction of the franchise at a time when it is still working to rebuild goodwill with fans after trading Doncic. A third straight missed playoff appearance would be a particularly hard outcome to explain given the resources invested in retooling the roster around Flagg and the rest of the young core.
For now, the Mavericks' path to relevance in the Western Conference playoff race runs through one player's recovery. Kyrie Irving has not suited up in an NBA game in over a year and a half, and until he does, the true ceiling of this Dallas team will remain unknown. The organization's belief in reaching the postseason, and possibly climbing into the tier occupied by Houston and the Lakers, hinges on whether the guard who was averaging over 26 points a night before his ACL tear can pick up where he left off.
