Kalshi, the federally regulated prediction market exchange, is drawing heavy trading volume around NFL preseason games and MLB matchups this month, as regional sports and news outlets roll out referral codes promising new users bonus credits worth up to $500. The activity underscores how quickly prediction markets have moved from a niche financial product into mainstream sports coverage, even as the company insists it is not a sportsbook.
According to AL.com, all 32 NFL teams took the field during Week 1 of the preseason, with matchups such as Cardinals-Raiders and Patriots-Colts drawing attention from traders using the outlet's Kalshi referral code, which offers a variable bonus of up to $500 after a user completes $25 in cash trades. The outlet noted that preseason games are notoriously hard to forecast because of shifting depth charts, pointing to quarterback battles in both games, including Arizona's Kedon Slovis and Las Vegas rookie Jacob Clark competing for backup roles, and New England still sorting out its defensive depth behind the starters.
CBS Sports reported similar momentum further into the 2026 season outlook, highlighting a Kalshi market on the 2027 AFC Championship winner that had already drawn nearly $3.3 million in trading volume. The Buffalo Bills were the trading favorite at 16 cents per share, with the Baltimore Ravens close behind at 13 cents, buoyed by a healthy Lamar Jackson entering camp under new head coach Jesse Minter, who replaced longtime Ravens coach John Harbaugh this offseason. The Cincinnati Bengals, with a healthy Joe Burrow after an injury-shortened 2025 campaign, traded at 9 cents, while the Pittsburgh Steelers, under new head coach Mike McCarthy and with Aaron Rodgers returning for a 22nd NFL season, sat at just 3 cents. The Cleveland Browns, who traded away star pass rusher Myles Garrett in the offseason, were priced at a single cent, making them the market's clear long shot.
MassLive.com, meanwhile, pointed to same-day baseball action, reporting that its own Kalshi referral code unlocked bonus credit for a Red Sox-Blue Jays matchup, with markets live and repricing ahead of first pitch. The outlet said Boston traded as a slight favorite over Toronto, a pricing level it described as closely matched with rival platform Polymarket, which had cleared roughly $208,000 in volume on the same game.
Across all three outlets, the mechanics of the referral bonus are largely consistent. New users create a Kalshi account, enter a specific promo code during sign-up, verify their identity, fund the account with a modest deposit, and place at least $25 in qualifying trades. In return, Kalshi issues a bonus credit that outlets describe as variable, typically ranging from $15 to $500, with most new users landing at the lower end of that range. MassLive.com specified that the bonus must be used within seven days of account opening and, per CBS Sports, expires within 30 days and cannot be withdrawn as cash.
Kalshi describes itself not as a betting site but as a financial exchange where users trade contracts tied to the outcome of real-world events, from sports results to political and economic indicators. Contracts are priced between one cent and 99 cents, with a winning contract paying out a dollar. As AL.com explained, if a team is priced at 55 cents to win and does win, each contract nets a 45-cent profit for the buyer. Unlike a traditional sportsbook, Kalshi does not take the other side of a trade; instead, users trade against one another, with prices moving in real time based on the balance of buyers and sellers, similar to how a stock exchange functions.
That structure is central to Kalshi's legal standing. The company is registered as a Designated Contract Market with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the highest regulatory classification available to a U.S. exchange, according to both AL.com and MassLive.com. That designation allows Kalshi to operate in states where traditional sports betting remains illegal, since it is regulated as a derivatives exchange rather than a gambling operator. AL.com specifically confirmed that Kalshi is legal in Alabama, a state without legal sports wagering, precisely because of this distinction.
Kalshi's chief rival, Polymarket, operates under a different structure. MassLive.com described Polymarket as a peer-to-peer prediction market rather than a CFTC-regulated exchange, though it noted both platforms are legal for eligible U.S. users and frequently price the same events within a few cents of each other. Polymarket also offers its own new-user incentives; AL.com noted a separate promo code delivering $20 in bonus credit after a $10 deposit, and outlets have encouraged bettors to compare pricing, or "line-shop," between the two platforms before trading.
Both companies emphasize that participation carries real financial risk. CBS Sports noted that Kalshi provides risk-management tools including trading breaks, a voluntary opt-out option, and personalized funding limits. AL.com's disclosure language was more blunt, warning that trading is "risky and not suitable for all investors" and that a 100% loss can occur, while directing users to the National Council on Problem Gambling's Financial Trader Health and Safety Initiative for additional support resources. All three outlets stressed that eligibility and legality vary by jurisdiction, and that users are responsible for confirming that prediction-market trading is permitted where they live before signing up.
For now, the convergence of sports media and financial-style trading products shows no sign of slowing. With NFL preseason games continuing through the summer and MLB pennant races heating up, Kalshi's markets are expected to keep repricing in real time as rosters, injuries, and coaching decisions shift the odds traders are willing to pay.
