Arthur Fils will look to move into the semifinals of the Canadian Open when he faces Spanish teenager Rafael Jodar in a quarterfinal clash at IGA Stadium in Montreal, with the two players evenly matched heading into their third meeting of the season. The match is scheduled to start at 6 p.m. ET on Monday, according to both Yahoo Sports and Sports Betting Dime.
Fils and Jodar have split their two previous encounters in 2026. Fils won their first meeting at the Barcelona Open semifinal, a three-set grind that stretched to 26 total games, with Fils taking 15 games to Jodar's 11, according to Sports Betting Dime. Jodar answered in their most recent meeting, beating Fils in the second round of the Washington Open in straight sets. In that match, Jodar generated 10 break-point opportunities and converted three, while Fils managed just one conversion on five chances. Jodar also outscored Fils 80 points to 74 overall and won 13 games to Fils' nine, per Sports Betting Dime's breakdown of the match.
The stakes in Montreal extend beyond bragging rights. Both men are closely bunched in the ATP rankings that determine qualification for the season-ending championships. Sports Betting Dime reported that Jodar sits at No. 11 in the ATP Singles Race with Fils close behind at No. 13, though the outlet separately listed Jodar at No. 15 in the overall ATP rankings with 2,243 points compared to Fils at No. 24 with 1,940 points — a discrepancy that underscores just how tightly the two are packed near the top of the sport regardless of which list is used.
A Teenager Chasing History
For Jodar, the match is also about continuing one of the more remarkable runs of the 2026 season. By reaching the quarterfinals in Madrid, Rome and now Montreal, Jodar has become just the third teenager since 1990 to reach at least three consecutive Masters 1000 quarterfinals, joining Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz as the only players to achieve the feat, according to Yahoo Sports, which credited the report originally to Athlon Sports. Jodar arrived in Montreal after reaching the final of the Mubadala D.C. Open, where he lost to Taylor Fritz, and has kept his form going in Canada with straight-set wins over Lorenzo Musetti and Jiri Lehecka after surviving a tough test against Corentin Moutet, per Sports Betting Dime.
A win over Fils, or even a run to the final, would push Jodar closer to breaking into the ATP Top 10, Yahoo Sports noted, adding another milestone to a breakout season that has already drawn comparisons to two of the sport's biggest stars.
What the Numbers Say
Sports Betting Dime's analysis of Elo ratings and 52-week performance metrics paints a picture of two players who are, statistically, almost dead even. The site's ATP Elo table has Jodar ranked No. 5 overall with a 2000.9 rating, just ahead of Fils at No. 6 with 1993.8 — a gap the outlet described as too small to call Jodar a runaway favorite. On hard courts specifically, Fils actually holds a slight edge, with an hElo rating of 1924.6 compared to Jodar's 1903.1.
Where Jodar pulls ahead, according to the same analysis, is on return games. Over the past 52 weeks, Jodar has created 0.74 break points per game compared to Fils' 0.56, won 32.8 percent of his return games against Fils' 21.6 percent, and posted a dominance ratio of 1.532 to Fils' 1.315. Jodar has also won a higher share of points against both first serves (35.1 percent to 28.1 percent) and second serves (53.7 percent to 49.6 percent), while converting break points at a better rate, 44.3 percent to 38.5 percent. Fils' counterpunch is his serve: he holds his service games 86.4 percent of the time compared to Jodar's 81.9 percent, giving him a clear defensive advantage even as Jodar applies more consistent pressure on return.
Those numbers led Sports Betting Dime to favor Jodar on the moneyline at -108 odds on FanDuel, while also recommending a bet on the total games going over 22.5, available at +104 implied odds on Kalshi. The outlet pointed to the fact that neither of the pair's previous two matches came anywhere close to a routine result — the Barcelona match ran to 26 games and even the more lopsided Washington meeting reached 22 games despite finishing in straight sets. Sportsbooks broadly reflected the closeness of the matchup, with bet365 odds as of August 9 showing both players at -110 on the moneyline, a spread of just 0.5 games at -120 on either side, and the total set at 22.5 games with -120 odds on both over and under.
How to Watch
Viewers in the United States can watch the quarterfinal on Tennis Channel and Tennis Channel Plus, according to Yahoo Sports. Canadian coverage was reported differently across the two outlets: Yahoo Sports listed TSN and TVA Sports Direct, available as an add-on channel through Prime Video, while Sports Betting Dime named Sportsnet as the Canadian broadcaster. Fans in Australia can find the match on beIN Sports, while Sky Sports carries the tournament in the United Kingdom. Eurosport and SuperTennis round out coverage across other parts of Europe, per Yahoo Sports.
Whichever side comes out on top, the winner will advance to the semifinals of the Canadian Open with a chance to add further ranking points in a season where the margins between Fils and Jodar have so far proven razor-thin.
